Behind the News: Time to debunk Y2K Myths

September 28, 1998

Behind the News:
Time To Debunk Y2K Myths

To Stand There Staring At The Oncoming Y2K Lights
Reduces No Risks

Please Note: This article first appeared in InformationWeek, September 28, 1998. pg.172.

e all see the light coming toward us, but no one is quite sure just what the light represents. Motionless, we stand in awe, knowing only that it is surely coming-and that it arrives on Jan. 1, 2000.
There are a number of year 2000-related myths. I call them "myths" because they are false statements thought to be true. It's time to debunk a few of them.
The first failure-fostering Y2K myth is that Macs are fine. Macs are not Y2K OK. It's true that Macintosh hardware knows how to handle year data well into the next century, and that the newest version of Mac OS is century-capable, too. But there are problems with earlier versions of Mac OS and Mac applications. Most have all of the same date-processing problems as their PC versions. Mac date-data exchanges are likewise problematic, primarily because of differences in how various applications process and store dates. But unless users know these differences and understand what to do about them, they can have serious problems processing dates. A quick visit to Apple's Web site will verify most of this-and yet I see this myth promulgated regularly in the popular and IS press.
The second failure-fostering Y2K fiction concerns Windows 98. The name alone should alert us to the simple fact that Windows 98 is not Y2K OK, either. Windows 98 defaults to two-digit years just like Windows 95, and two-digit years can lead to problems. In fact, all versions of Windows have date-processing problems, though most are easily managed if you know what to do about them. The same is true of practically every Microsoft product, including the newest versions. Microsoft users need to be informed of this plethora of program problems and trained in how to deal with them.
Another popular Y2K myth is that the use of two-digit years saved more money than it costs to repair the problems. Although this may be true in some circumstances, use of two-digit years in most applications can't be economically justified. In 1995, I developed a mathematical model to estimate the accrued savings attributable to unused mainframe disk space. Like all models, this one simplifies reality by making certain assumptions, including that inflation can be represented by the consumer price index, that a 1% disk-space savings can result from the use of two-digit years, a 10% internal rate of return, and that storage utilization was constant during the period.
Using the model to calculate the cumulative savings through 1995 from an application created in 1963, we concluded that such a system "has saved between $650,000 and $1.5 million per gigabyte of total storage (in 1995 dollars), depending on how quickly storage equipment was upgraded. For the 25 years from 1972 to 1997, the comparable figures are $35,000 to $75,000 per gigabyte, and for the 15 years from 1983 to 1997, $600 to $1,250 (Year 2000 Problem: Strategies and Solutions from the Fortune 100, International Thomson Press, p. 54; www.year2000.unt.edu/book).
It's easy to see how, with an average annual savings of $18,571 to $42,857, offsetting savings may have accrued from the 35-year-old application. But such overall economic benefits are not easily seen with average annual savings of just $1,400 to $3,000 for 25-year-old apps, and clearly not at all with a mere $40 to $83 in annual savings for a 15-year-old system.
It seems that accurate perceptions of our past and our present are blurred by myths and misconceptions. I suspect the same is true of our perceptions of the future. But to stand there staring at the oncoming Y2K lights reduces no risks - and only serves to turn our communities, our organizations, and our careers into roadkill. The choice is yours.

Professor Leon A. Kappelman is an associate professor of Business Computer Information System in the College of Business Administration at the University of North Texas. He is also an associate director of the Center for Quality and Productivity at the University of North Texas, co-chair of the Society for Information Management's Year 2000 Working Group, and program chair of the SPG Year 2000 Conference & Expo. He can be reached at kapp@unt.edu.

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