An Open Letter to the President of the United States

Please note: The first version of this letter was originally sent by email to President Clinton on October 4, 1997. It then appeared on page 78 of the November/December 1997 issue of the Year/2000Journal.

See an image of the letter as it appeared in Year/2000 Journal

Dear President Clinton:

 Time is of the essence so I will be brief. I humbly ask you to please declare a national and global state of emergency because of the year-2000 (or century-date computer-processing) problem. I base this request not on some precognition about the future but on empirical evidence of both the enormous risks posed by this problem and on the minuscule probability that we will be able to effectively mitigate all of these risks in the time remaining.

Would you declare a state of emergency if you were informed today that millions of meteors, ranging in size from the diameter of a baseball to that of the moon, were due to strike Earth on January 1, 2000? Metaphorically that is the situation we face. And just as people who examine the heavens without the benefit of telescopes might deny the existence of such meteors, this would not reduce the risks posed by them.

Whether we like it or not, the world is now in such a state of emergency – Regrettably we are not behaving as such and thus precious time is wasting. Fighting the century-date computer-processing problem is much like a war effort. But not only do we have the problem itself to defeat, but also the enemies of limited time as well as other resources, compounded by the near invisibility of the problem to the naked eye – The near 100% increase in total federal year-2000-project cost estimates over that past few months is evidence of how little of this problem can be seen at first glance. Your leadership is intensely needed Mr. President.

Take the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) for example: Although the NRC publicly acknowledges century-date-related computer-processing risks that are profoundly threatening to human lives and the environment, they refuse to require or take any action. Instead they rely on the unsubstantiated claims of parties who apparently have not actually tested any of these systems either – kind of like looking for meteors with the aid of a bottomless paper cup – and on some peculiar and irrational hope that no human errors could possibly occur if embedded-microprocessor and/or computer-based process-control systems do fail.

Such behavior is reminiscent of Neville Chamberlain when he returned from making the Munich Pact with Hitler in 1938, hoping against hope that appeasement would end the risk of war he said "I believe it is peace for our time.... I recommend you to go home and sleep quietly in your beds." A few days later, during the debates in Parliament to decide whether or not to ratify the Munich Pact, Churchill said, "There has been gross neglect and deficiency in our defenses.... We have sustained a defeat without a war, the consequences of which will travel far with us.... This is only the beginning of the reckoning." As we know Mr. President, the Munich Pact was ratified, Churchill was right, and millions died correcting this error. Do you wish to be remembered by history as a Chamberlain or a Churchill?

One is either part of this problem or part of the solution. Mr. President, you became part of the solution with your recent National Archives speech. You stated the standard by which all federal century-date-problem efforts should be judged – no disruptions. Surely you did not intend that this standard be applied only to federal business systems and exclude federal regulatory responsibilities. Federal financial regulators like the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council (FFIEC, which as you know consists of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the National Credit Union Administration, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, and the Office of Thrift Supervision) are part of solution. The NRC, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ), the Energy Department, and the President’s Commission of Critical Infrastructure Protection (PCCIP) are all still part of the problem. Regrettably their example of denial and irresponsibility is being followed by about 35% of US enterprises (both public and private), with even higher numbers found in most other countries.

The time for denial is long past – It is time for triage directed at a clear and urgent focus on the most life-threatening and mission-critical systems. Real tests of these systems are needed, not wishful thinking – Please ask to see proof not just promises that all is well. Priorities must be set in order to focus limited resources of time and skills on repairing those systems that can cause the most damage, disruption, or death.

Sacrifices will be necessary – This will require some tough decisions by political, government, business, and other leaders. All of the year-2000-problem meteors cannot be stopped in time, thus we must focus our efforts on those that pose the greatest risks. A state of emergency declared by you is critically needed. As well as some facilitation of information sharing among countries, industries, and economic sectors. Time is wasting! Please Mr. President, send the world a wake up call before it's too late.

Respectfully,

Leon A. Kappelman, Ph.D.

Co-Chair, Society for Information Management (SIM) Year 2000 Working Group

Associate Professor, Business Computer Information Systems, University of North Texas

Associate Director, Center for Quality and Productivity, University of North Texas

(c) 1997 Leon A. Kappelman. All rights reserved. Unlimited non-commercial not-for-profit use to raise awareness of the year 2000 problem is authorized. Dr. Kappelman can be reached by phone at 940-565-3110, by facsimile at 940-565-4935, and by email at kapp@unt.edu. Visit his website at http://www.unt.edu/bcis/faculty/kappelma/