December 20, 1999
More Than Just A Moment In Time
By Leon A. Kappelman
 
 

 The moment of truth is almost upon us. Well, sort of. The truth is that Y2K is not about a moment at all. Oh sure, some things will break on or about New Year's (a.k.a. The Big Weekend)--especially some of the more dreaded embedded system problems in chemical processing, transportation, medical devices, power, and communications.

    But when things go wrong, will we know it? Much like IT security breaches, only if they can't be concealed. That's why the more appropriate nickname for The Big Weekend might be Death Watch Weekend.

    Multitudes of media will be on Death Watch Weekend duty worldwide, as will a plethora of publicists from government and industry, along with their legions of "Y2K experts," most of whom will be ready, willing, and able to explain any and all events in such a way as to prove that they were right all along.

    And if news of problematic events surfaces, will we know if the problem is really Y2K-related? Not much chance of that, either. The other truth is that there's no agreement as to what actually constitutes a Y2K problem.

    Fortunately, plenty of front-line techies will be on duty to handle problems. And most problems will be resolved quickly, as usual, but not all. Many IS professionals will also be called upon by their employers, colleagues, friends, families, and the media to explain various events that weekend and throughout the year 2000. If you get blessed with such an opportunity, keep in mind that there will be an enormous amount of noise in the data because of the following, sometimes conflicting, forces:
 

• Finger-pointing: Since almost everyone has said, "I'm OK, but we're worried about them," there will be a tendency to blame all problems on one them or another.

 
• Gimme shelter: The federal Y2K Act provides special protections for those causing harm with Y2K problems; thus, there's an incentive to call everything "a Y2K problem" and get the benefits of the law.

 
• Blame game: The partial liability provisions of the Y2K Act also provide incentives for bringing in other parties to share in the blame since it potentially reduces one's own. Deep-pocketed companies in the middle of things will be dragged into litigations, culpable or not.

 
• Self-fulfilling prophecy: The human tendency is to interpret events in ways compatible with prior predictions and predilections to avoid admitting past errors. This form of denial explains why many IT projects fail at great cost.

 
• Difficult diagnosis: Diagnosing the causality of complex system problems is usually difficult, even after a fix. No one looking in from the outside--and, in many cases, even insiders--will be able to ascertain causes definitively as Y2K-related or not. It becomes a political or legal call instead of an operational or technical one. Hairsplitting and obfuscation will prevail.

 
• Background noise: And then there's the simple fact that lots of things go wrong every day. Automated teller machines in the United States are down about 1% of the time, but about 8% of ATM transactions fail the first time, mostly because of user error, according to the President's Council on Year 2000 Conversion (see www.y2k.gov). More than 5% of Internet packets are lost in cyberspace, although the best Internet service providers are 10 times better than that (see www.mids.org), and the Cert Coordination Center handled more than 750 computer security incidents per month in the first nine months of 1999 (see www.cert.org).

IT doesn't have a monopoly on screwups, either. Each year, problems with hazardous materials account for about one-third of the 6,900 reported chemical incidents in the United States, including more than 60 deaths, 2,270 injuries, and 93,000 evacuations (see www.csb.gov). The United States also averages more than 450 fatal aviation accidents annually, resulting in nearly 850 deaths. Worldwide in 1998, there were 273 terrorist attacks resulting in 741 deaths and 5,952 injuries. Also in 1998, 96 ships with an average displacement of more than 5,690 tons were lost at sea (see www.arlingtoninstitute.org).

The bottom line on surviving Death Watch Weekend: Protect people first, don't jump to conclusions, and keep your head. You're going to need it all year.

 Leon A. Kappelman is associate director of the Center for Quality and Productivity at the University of North Texas and co-chairman of the Society for Information Management's Year 2000 Working Group. Reach him at kapp@unt.edu.

Copyright ® 1999 CMP Media Inc.