This report is probably indicative of the state of the art on climate models. The good thing about this report (http://globalchange.mit.edu/files/document/MITJPSPGC_Rpt180.pdf) is that (1) they take a systems thinking approach and make a real effort to deal with the complexity of the question, (2) they disclose all the models they cobble together, all the assumptions they make, the parameters they estimate, the sources of their data and the component models, and (3) then run Monte Carlo simulations to develop probability estimates. The bad news is that the media will probably never look the details and just report the headlines and the colorful graphic (http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2009/climate-change-1002.html).
What astonishes me is how much time and money are going into this kind of work, how many government agencies and energy companies appear to be funding this, how complex the model is, and how many assumptions it requires. In some ways this makes their findings appear to have high face validity and will limit serious examination of their work. The fundamental underlying weaknesses of this work are (1) how suspect much of the underlying science is that they assume to be true before this research even begins, (2) that they appear to assume the component models and estimates are perfectly right before they begin the simulation, and (3) that they fail to disclose or include the probability or confidence intervals of any of the assumptions or component models (perhaps because this research assumes them all to be perfectly right before beginning).
Clint Eastwood's Dirty Harry line "Are you feeling lucky, punk?" comes to mind as I ponder to what extend the world's policy makers, in their desire to be good stewards of the environment, may bet their national economies on this model which is basically no more than a weather forecast on steroids and mega-vitamins.
-
"All we ever know is our models, but never the reality that may or may not exist behind the models and casts its shadow upon us who are embedded inside it. We imagine and intuit, then point the finger and wait to see which suspect for truth turns and runs. Our models may get closer and closer, but we will never reach direct perception of reality's thing-in-itself." – Stephen Hawking
-
“Any fool can make things bigger, more complex, and more violent. It takes a touch of genius — and a lot of courage — to move in the opposite direction.” — Albert Einstein
